The Big One is coming sooner than previously thought
The Spin Off – Ursula Cochran and Jamie Howarth
New research shows that the risk of the big one hitting the South Island’s spine is far higher than previously thought, write Ursula Cochran and lead researcher Jamie Howarth.
Calculating the chance of an earthquake on a particular fault currently relies on the long geological earthquake record, which is both notoriously hard to find and labour-intensive to decode. These records are rare worldwide, but here in New Zealand, on the Alpine Fault, we have one of the best. It’s been used to test whether computer models that simulate earthquake occurrence can replicate reality – and it turns out, they can. The days of routine forecasts of earthquakes on known active faults are getting closer.
It’s been a multigenerational journey of discovery. And it’s not over. But with research published this week in Nature Geoscience, there’s a step-change afoot in the forecasting of earthquakes.